Effect of Variable Choice on Reliability and Predictive Validity For a model to be useful for policy decisions, statistical fit is insufficient. Evidence that the model provides out-of-estimation-sample forecasts that are more accurate and reliable than those from plausible alternative…
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) attributes observed climate variability primarily to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. This conclusion relies heavily on adjusted datasets and outputs from global climate models (GCMs) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) framework. However, this…
A study published by the CO2 Coalition claims that the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is manmade. This claim is examined here and rejected. There are two fundamental shortcomings in the study: It is based on an inappropriate model, that…
Recent global warming and climate change studies frequently assume that the rise in atmospheric CO2 is entirely due to human emissions. In particular, the assumption is based on a figure of CO2 concentration of 280 ppm at the end of…
We briefly review the dominant role of clouds in Earth’s climate. The earliest observational studies of heat transfer through Earth’s atmosphere, for example, those of John Leslie around 1800, showed that clouds have a large effect on radiative heat transfer…