Newest Article

Salby & Harde 2022 Theory of Increasing Greenhouse Gases (Preprint)

Murry Salby✞1, Hermann Harde2
1Ex Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
2Helmut-Schmidt-University, Hamburg, Germany

Unlike elsewhere on the globe, temperature in the tropics has increased systematically. From observed tropical temperature, numerical simulations have reproduced the observed evolution of atmospheric CO2, including its annual cycle. Much the same has followed empirically from the observed covariance between tropical temperature and net emission of CO2 – the component of emission that actually changes CO2. Intensified over tropical land, the robust coherence between those observed features establishes that the changes of tropical temperature do not follow from changes of CO2, but rather produce them.
Here, we investigate the physical mechanisms through which observed warming in the tropics can produce the observed evolution of CO2. The conservation law governing atmospheric CO2, supported by the observed temperature dependence of surface fluxes and observed temperature in the tropics, is used to calculate the time-varying response of CO2 net emission.

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