Green&Soon: Are Climate Model Forecasts Useful for Policy Making?
Effect of Variable Choice on Reliability and Predictive Validity For a model to be useful for policy decisions, statistical fit is insufficient. Evidence that the model provides out-of-estimation-sample forecasts that are more accurate and reliable than those from plausible alternative models, including a simple benchmark, is necessary. The UN’s IPCC advises governments with forecasts of…
Grok 3 beta et al.: A Critical Reassessment of the Anthropogenic CO₂-Global Warming Hypothesis
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) attributes observed climate variability primarily to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. This conclusion relies heavily on adjusted datasets and outputs from global climate models (GCMs) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) framework. However, this study conducts a rigorous evaluation of these assertions by juxtaposing them against unadjusted observational data…
Roth: About the Origin of CO2 in the Atmosphere.
A study published by the CO2 Coalition claims that the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is manmade. This claim is examined here and rejected. There are two fundamental shortcomings in the study: It is based on an inappropriate model, that is far from reality, and it ignores that the atmosphere is an open system. In…
Ato: Pitfalls in Global Warming and Climate Change Research
Recent global warming and climate change studies frequently assume that the rise in atmospheric CO2 is entirely due to human emissions. In particular, the assumption is based on a figure of CO2 concentration of 280 ppm at the end of the pre-industrial period. However, this assumption reveals itself to be contradicted by an examination of…
W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer: Radiation Transport in Clouds
We briefly review the dominant role of clouds in Earth’s climate. The earliest observational studies of heat transfer through Earth’s atmosphere, for example, those of John Leslie around 1800, showed that clouds have a large effect on radiative heat transfer from Earth’s surface to space. Greenhouse gases also affect heat transfer, but much less than…
Koutsoyiannis: Relative importance of carbon dioxide and water in the greenhouse effect
Using a detailed atmospheric radiative transfer model, we derive macroscopic relationships of downwelling and outgoing longwave radiation which enable determining the partial derivatives thereof with respect to the explanatory variables that represent the greenhouse gases. We validate these macroscopic relationships using empirical formulae based on downwelling radiation data, commonly used in hydrology, and satellite data…
