Antero Ollila: Natural Climate Drivers Dominate in the Current Warming

SCC Volume 3.3

Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is the prevailing theory of the IPCC for global warming, in which Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the major drivers, whereas albedo, aerosols, and clouds have had cooling effects, and natural drivers have an insignificant role (<0.8 %).

According to Assessment Report 6 (AR6), these radiative forcings (RF) have been a total of 2.70 Wm-2 causing a temperature increase of 1.27 °C in 2019. Many research studies are showing significantly lower RF and climate sensitivity values for anthropogenic climate drivers. Research studies offering natural climate drivers as the partial or total solution for global warming have gradually emerged like solar radiation changes, cosmic forces, and multidecadal, century- and millennial-scale climate oscillations. The cloud effects are still a major concern in General Circulation Models (GCMs). The cloudiness changes have a major role in cosmic effects like magnifying the warming effect of the Total Solar Irradiation (TSI). The 60- & 88- year oscillations are the best-known oscillations, which are commonly known as AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and the Gleissberg cycle explaining the ups and downs of the global temperature in the 1900s. Mechanisms of long-term climate oscillations are still under debate. There are also essential differences
between carbon cycle models and GH effect magnitude specifications. The synthesis of these natural climate drivers together with anthropogenic drivers constitutes an alternative theory called Natural Anthropogenic Global Warming (NAGW), in which natural drivers have a major role in dominating the warming during the current warm period. These results mean that there is no climate crisis and a need for prompt CO2 reduction programs.

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