Solar control of global warming and cooling (Svensmark Theory) is supported by the similarity of two published graphs: (1) average near-surface air-temperature for the last 9,000 years (from proxies and, since 1880, NASA thermometer charts); and (2) solar-magnetic output (proxies). Graph-to-graph visual cross-matching of spikes (peaks, troughs) and of multi-century trends reveals a variable temperature lag (~100-225 years). Despite the good qualitative match, the correlation coefficient for the last 2,000 years is low (0.3), attributable to lag variability and numerous non-matching spikes. Relative amplitudes of cross-matched peaks indicate disproportionate warmth since 1940, coinciding with the large growth in coal- and oil combustion since World War Two. Based on two features of NASA’s temperature charts, the main cause of this excess warmth is not carbon dioxide (CO2): (1) after 1980, warming paused (4-8 years) four times, conflicting with CO2’s non-pausing growth; and (2) since 1985, warming is faster above land than ocean, at odds with CO2’s spatial homogeneity, instead implicating poorly dispersed airborne black carbon (essentially soot, which absorbs solar radiation, thereby warming the air), hitherto widely considered the second most important human-produced warming agent. Soot is emitted by the burning of coal, diesel-oil, and wood, mainly on land. Incriminating especially coal: (1) the mentioned land/ocean decoupling began (1985) only 10 years after the growth-rate of world annual coal-consumption abruptly tripled; and (2) the longest warming-pause (2003-2011) started soon (15 years) after the first-ever coal-growth pause (1988-1999) began. Consistent with this evidence that CO2 has, in reality, relatively little warming effect, numerous authors have reported that changes in CO2 follow changes in temperature. Apparently, therefore, CO2’s greenhouse effect is largely (entirely?) outweighed by little-known feedbacks. Indeed, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change acknowledges cloud-related feedbacks as climate models’ largest uncertainty. Thus, stopping anthropogenic warming might be tantalisingly easy: simply stabilise coal- and oil combustion, thereby ending airborne-soot growth. Natural gas (almost soot-free) could be substituted for coal in electricity generation. Gas reserves are sufficient for decades, perhaps long enough for development of nuclear fusion (soot- and CO2-free).
