Croll : Does the Geological Evidence Indicate a Causal Link between CO2 and Climate Change?

Climate is changing and always has with many and varied recognised drivers. Earth‘s interaction with our celestial neighbours within the solar system and the solar systems relationships within the galaxy being perhaps the most recognised and important of these primary drivers of climate change at virtually all time scales. On the other hand, GHGs and especially CO2 are recognised as primary factors in making Earth habitable and providing the fundamental requirements for the evolution of both faunal and floral life. So why is CO2 attracting such opprobrium and is there any rationale for the current, single minded, global quest to reduce its levels?

The following will examine some of the evidence from the geological records addressing this issue. It will attempt to show how many fundamental geological processes may have at least part of their explanation in terms of Earth’s changing climate. And it will also try to demonstrate that over most of the past 600 Ma there has been very little evidence of a direct link between CO2 and climatic conditions. In addition, it will suggest there is no definitive evidence as to whether CO2 or climate is responsible for ensuring their close correlation over the past 60 Ma. But the consideration that there are well recognised and scientifically sound explanations for observed cyclic changes in climate, especially over the past 6 Ma, and again rational scientific processes that account for CO2 following these climate cycles, should surely tip the balance of probability towards climate change being the primary driver of CO2.

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