The anthropogenic theory of global warming advocated by the IPCC is based on the theory that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from anthropogenic emissions causes warming, which in turn increases water vapor, triggering a positive feedback loop that leads to further warming and CO2 rise. This study examines the validity of this theory using the best available data to date.
Using meteorological satellite data mainly from year 2000 onwards, the interaction between solar activity, global sea surface temperature (G-SST), global specific humidity (G-SpHm) in the earth surface, and CO₂ was investigated. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed with G-SST adjusted for month difference as the dependent variable and absorbed shortwave (ASW) at the top of the atmosphere, total solar irradiance (TSI), and CO₂ as explanatory variables. The positive independent predictors of G-SST in the best model were ASW and TSI of anomalies (13-month running mean), with standardized regression coefficients β = 0.657, P = 1.78e-62, and β = 0.459, P = 7.60e-39, respectively; Model R² = 0.764, P = 7.96e-87.
Furthermore, G-SST precedes G-SpHm by a few months. No impact was observed on G-SST fluctuations by the rise in G-SpHm in 2023 and 2024. These results refute the hypothesis linking atmospheric CO₂ and water vapor. This study represents the first report to disprove the positive feedback theory underpinning the anthropogenic CO₂ warming hypothesis through verification of time lags between elements and multivariate analysis. And the dominating factor in Earth’s climate is still solar activity, even in the 21st century, according to the data provided by world prominent institutions.
The Appendix includes supplementary material to the main text, flaws in the fundamental assumptions of CO2-dependent climate models, a simple method for distinguishing the origin of CO2 increases using carbon isotopes, and updates to the author’s previous reports.