Abdussamatov: Self-Amplifying Feedback Effects from Long-Term Declines in Solar Radiation will Trigger Deep Cooling Phase of the 19th Little Ice Age around 2080

In climate modeling, it is generally accepted assumed that variations in the total solar irradiance (TSI) have an insignificant effect on climate, while during the Holocene the contribution of TSI to climate changes was great. Long term a weak temperature change (≈ 0.25 K) caused by TSI variations in the quasi-bicentennial cycle (BCC) significantly changes the physical, optical and radiation characteristics of the surface and atmosphere. For the first time it is shown that such temperature change generates continuous, repeatedly repeating chains which cause feedback effects also during periods of the minimum and maximum phase BCC, despite the quasi-stability of the average TSI level. Self-amplifying feedback mechanisms, continuously acting throughout the BCC, significantly change the share of TSI absorption by the planet, the greenhouse effect and the energy imbalance between the Earth and space (EEI). This increases several times the amplitude of the primary small temperature variation caused by the direct impact of TSI variations in the BCC.

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