Karl Iver Dahl-Madsen: The Carbon Balance shows that Net-Zero is neither Necessary nor Rational

Klimarealistene P.O. Box 33, 3901 Porsgrunn Norway

ISSN: 2703-9072

Correspondence: karliver @dahl-madsen.com

Vol. 3.4 (2023) p. 391

Karl Iver Dahl-Madsen
Independent Scientist, Denmark

Microsoft Word – Dahl-Madsen-2023-Carbon-Balance.docx

Keywords: Carbon Cycle; Atmospheric CO2; Natural emissions; Anthropogenic emissions Submitted 2023-09-20, Accepted 2023-09-24. https://doi.org/10.53234/scc202310/36

The current increase in atmospheric CO2 is predominantly caused by human emissions. All other explanations violate the mass conservation law. The speech will present a simple global carbon balance model where the driving force for the observed uptake of excess carbon in the biosphere and the oceans is the difference between the actual concentration in the atmosphere minus a temperature dependent atmospheric equilibrium concentration.

The temperature/CO2 relation will be using empirical proven climate sensitivity. Results from 3 scenarios will be shown:

  1. No climate actions. Even if we do nothing we will eventually stabilize and de- crease atmospheric CO2 and excess temperature. Firstly, because we can expect the increase in carbon efficiency to continue for a long time. Secondly, because other solid energy production methods like nuclear fission will eventually be less expensive than fossil energy for many purposes, as fossil fuels gets less abundant and more expensive to develop.
  2. Net-Zero. The stop of CO2 emissions will more or less immediately result in an exponential reduction of atmospheric CO2 towards the equilibrium level, with a subsequent resulting near immediate reduction in excess temperature.
  3. A constant CO2 emission. This will stabilize the atmospheric CO2 at a level where emissions equal uptake, with a resulting stabilization of excess temperature. This makes it possible for humankind to use fossil fuels for hundreds of years for pur- poses for which they are eminently suited, such as transportation and raw materi- als for plastic and chemicals.

Editors:. Jan-Erik Solheim and Stein Storlie Bergsmark.
Funding: This research did not receive any funding.

Science of Climate Change