Raimund Müller: Estimation of e -Time for CO2 and Revelle Factor

SCC Volume 3.3.

This study develops a very simple climate model, based on the standard lagging formula. The mathematical function is derived in detail. The main purpose is to estimate the e-time of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Many models evaluate the inflow to the atmospheric CO2 reservoir by rate equations describing the flow from e.g. sea to atmosphere with the weakness that not all parameters describing that flow are well known.

This paper calculates the inflow and outflow to the atmosphere from the best data material that could be obtained. The conclusions are based on data rather than estimated flow parameters. I obtain as a result for each individual year an e-time. The average over 270 years is 3.96 years and it is fairly constant over this time period.

A challenge in the compilation of the annual mass balance of CO2 in the atmosphere is the unknown amount of additional natural CO2 emission beyond the 1750 level. I used the amount determined by Skrable, and I add the increased emissions of the oceans due to temperature increase and the massive increase in wood burning to obtain a diagram that corresponds to the measured values of the CO2 increase.

The conclusion is, that the anthropogenic contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide in 2020 is only 28.9 ppmv. Including the anthropogenic burning of wood gives a total of 50.5 ppmv. I have estimated the Revelle factor (R) per year over 120 years. With an average value of 1.44, it is significantly lower than the value assumed by the IPCC. Thus, the absorptive capacity of the ocean is significantly higher than assumed in most IPCC models, where they use a Revelle factor (R) greater than 10. Also, the extent of biomass growth can be verified. All necessary data to falsify this are available in extensive databases.

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