Antero Ollila: The 2023 Record Temperatures

Vol 4.1

According to the paradigm of the IPCC global warming is solely due to anthropogenic causes. Record-high temperatures have been measured for the summer months of 2023 and the anthropogenic climate drivers – mainly greenhouse gases – have been named as culprits. Simple analyses reveal that the temperature increase of the year 2023 cannot be explained exclusively by anthropogenic climate drivers. The hypothesis of this study is to show that the main climate driver for the high temperature of 2023 has been the Absorbed Shortwave Radiation (ASR). The approach has been to apply the CERES (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System) satellite radiation measurements, which started in March 2001. Simple climate models have been applied since General Climate Models (GCM) cannot simulate cloudiness and shortwave radiation (SW) changes properly. The ASR changes are related mainly to cloudiness and aerosol particle changes. Since 2014 the global surface temperature growth rate has accelerated but this does not apply to anthropogenic climate drivers, and therefore the ASR changes are probably related to external forcings. The total Radiative Forcing (RF) according to the AR6 was 2.70 Wm-2 for the period 1750-2019. This can be compared to the change in the ASR, which was 2.01 Wm-2 from the year 2000 to the year 2023. This finding means that natural climate drivers have altogether an important role in recent global warming.

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